More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

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More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by timmy » Sun Dec 14, 2014 4:18 am

The majority of Americans now favor the individual's right to gun ownership. This is a milestone, as anti-gun advocates have been attempting to deprive citizens of their RKBA for almost 50 years. Despite using masses of media propaganda, potentially crippling lawsuits of manufacturers, unconstitutionally restrictive local and state laws, and a host of other "nose in the tent" tactics, attempts to touch the "third rail" of this Bill of Rights guarantee has electrocuted the careers of politicians, more often than not.

This graph was presented in the following article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/supp ... -interest/ where the statistics behind public opinion are presented. I suggest you read this, but even if you don't, I'm including the graph that presents the "bottom line" for RKBA. I think that this is a very important matter, because even though the USA has the 2nd Amendment constitutionally guarantees gun rights, such rights have been steadily eroded until lately.

Without a similar guarantee, I do feel that educating the public about RKBA in India is ultimately the only way politicians will budge from their present positions.

Something to think about.

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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by xl_target » Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:35 am

One question to ask is who was asked the questions in the survey. If it was in Urban America, that might be about right for the percentages. IMO, in rural America, the percentage favoring gun control would be significantly lower.
I could be wrong but I believe the results would be similar in India, with rural folks being more in favor of RKBA.

Part of the issue is the media, with integrity and facts going the way of the dodo. Now "shaping the narrative" to reflect what the media thinks is the right thing is more important than the truth. That is why they continue to deliberately lie about current events, especially if it involves firearms. They even lie about facts that are easily verifiable from other sources and don't care that when they are caught in the lie.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by timmy » Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:29 am

Of course, the accuracy of any poll depends on taking a representative sample, and a representative sample depends on strict and absolute randomness when selecting who is polled. This is basic statistics, which have come a long way since the famous "Dewey defeats Truman" gaffe of the Chicago Tribune in the 1948 presidential election. (It turned out that the Tribune randomly called people by phone, and in 1948, many people didn't have phones. Those who did were more affluent and more likely to support Dewey, rather than Truman, thus the famously erred prediction.) The complexity is not realizing that the sample must be random -- that's basic statistics. The complexity lies in being able to really get a random sample, and as the Dewey-Truman poll begins to illustrate, this is fiendishly difficult.

The graph here is from Newsbank and Pew -- I can't say much about Newsbank, but Pew is usually pretty reputable as far as providing accurate polls. The article also includes data provided by Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, and YouGov, besides Pew.

I have been following Nate Silver for about 10 years now, and he's well-known for nailing election predictions better than anyone else. He does this by using data from multiple polls, which he has a way of factoring to come up with pretty reliable results. There's no surprise on election nights if you are following Nate.

One thing that is true regarding these results, however, is that the poll addresses the population, not the population that votes -- this can make a big difference! The result compared to what politicians are apt to do is very much tied to who votes, not to what people's opinions are. Politicians are, at the end of the day, nothing more or less than the reflections of those who vote.

Personally, I would think that this article is pretty close to the mark. Out here on the East Coast, where the population is dense (much more dense than anywhere else I've lived, for sure!), there is a very strong and deep antipathy toward guns and gun ownership. Based on my unscientific experiences, the same seems true in the Chicago area and a lot of California, as well -- areas that have a lot of population.

How someone would be able to take a scientific poll of India would really be an interesting exercise, indeed!
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by xl_target » Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:49 am

I should have been more specific. I typed the above on my phone and didn't want to get into too much detail. I wasn't doubting the results of the poll, per se.

I meant that the media (in the US) shapes, or tries to shape, how people think. I think they are more successful with the younger members of their audience than the older.
Since the bias of most media is against guns (at least in the USA) and RKBA, this tends to reflect the results of the poll. SInce the majority of people in the US are concentrated in urban areas, I think the results probably accurately reflect viewpoints on the subject.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by timmy » Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:11 am

I remember watching the late Peter Jennings on the news years ago. He was spouting off about the need to restrict gun ownership, saying, "Of course, it's reasonable..."

I thought to myself, 'Who decides what is reasonable: You, Peter Jennings?' I never could stand to watch him after that. Anyone who was so intellectually dishonest as to set up such a cheap straw man argument couldn't have anything to say that I needed to hear. Another is Bob Costas, the sports announcer. Aside from being another know-it-all type who pontificates about the sports he never played, he launched into a lecture about the need for restricting gun ownership awhile back. He's bad enough to listen to regarding sports -- now I have to tolerate him pontificating on politics during a sports cast? I don't think so! Another one I won't and don't watch. That's a pretty big list, anymore!

There is no question that the US TV news is trash, whether it is network or cable. I can't deal with any of it. My friend in Scotland says the same about the BBC news, yet when I watch it, it is orders of magnitude better than US news, for all of its faults.

One thing about Nate Silver: He only does national analysis. I tried in vain to find something on his site regarding the Scottish referendum, to no avail. :-(
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by bennedose » Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:01 am

With 200 million firearms in private hands in the US what would be the exact meaning of "gun control"?

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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by xl_target » Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:57 am

bennedose wrote:With 200 million firearms in private hands in the US what would be the exact meaning of "gun control"?
Putting more restrictions on how you can use them and criminalizing the acquisition, sale and transfer, of what many consider tools.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by brihacharan » Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:00 pm

bennedose wrote: With 200 million firearms in private hands in the US what would be the exact meaning of "gun control"?
> This could probably mean - a selective licence issuance procedure....such as the buyer should establish his / her credentials while purchasing a firearm....unlike the present system by which any US citizen could walk into a firearm store and buy it off the shelf....

Timmy wrote:
I do feel that educating the public about RKBA in India is ultimately the only way politicians will budge from their present positions.
:agree:

> IMHO - NAGRI would be the ideal platform to promote / educate the Indian public....a daunting task as it may appear but a well worth campaign to begin with and sustain it :D
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by xl_target » Sun Dec 14, 2014 12:51 pm

This could probably mean - a selective licence issuance procedure....such as the buyer should establish his / her credentials while purchasing a firearm....unlike the present system by which any US citizen could walk into a firearm store and buy it off the shelf....
This is absolutely false.
Anyone cannot just walk in and purchase a firearms without going through certain formalities.

If you want to purchase a long gun; rifle or shotgun. You still have to have a background check performed on you. Which means that you have to establish your identity with a government issued photo ID card. Once your ID is established, then you have to fill out a Form 4473. The form 4473 is the record of sale and is kept by the Firearms dealer permanently. Once you have the 4473 filled out then your information is called into the FBI database and a NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System) background check is run on you. This is a Federal (nationwide) law that requires every firearms purchase to have a background check. However, due to the magic of computers, this can be a very fast process. Sometimes it can just take a few minutes but sometimes it can take days.

Now we have a procedure that varies from state to state.
Then if you want to buy a handgun or so-called "assault weapon", you need a pistol permit or a special "permission to purchase" from your local law enforcement authority. An assault weapon is described by its features like having a pistol grip, detachable magazine, adjustable stock, blah, blah, blah. Which means that some .22 LR rifles get classified as "assault weapons" and some shotguns too.
Then you have to establish your identity as usual, fill out the Form 4473 and have your information called in to the FBI for the NICS check.

When acquiring your pistol permit or permit to purchase, you go through the FBI back ground check procedure and in some states it is re-checked at regular intervals. So you already have to go through numerous redundant background checks before you can purchase a firearm. Sales of firearms between private individuals don't require you to run the FBI checks (in most states). However, it is against the law to sell a firearm to an ineligible person. Ineligible persons are persons with felony convictions on their records, non-resident aliens, among other things. If you, as a private person regularly sell more than a few firearms, you have to get a dealers license. A dealer cannot sell a firearm without going through the procedure I outline above; establishing your identity, having you fill out a Form 4473 and running you through the NICS (FBI) check.

So when they talk about the "gun-show loophole", it is a myth. All dealers at shows (or anytime) have to put you through the verification procedure and the background check procedure before they can sell a firearm to you. Some private sales occur but they are just a very few. If you sell a bunch, you need a dealers license. Most of the people who advocate increased gun regulations don't understand the regulations already in place and they think that anyone can just walk in and purchase a firearm without any hinderance. Others, who propose increased gun regulations don't care as their agenda is to eventually get rid of all guns. They propose to do this by making it progressively more and more difficult for law abiding citizens to purchase firearms.

Law abiding citizens are the only ones who follow these regulations. Criminals can just go to back alleys and purchase a firearm from other criminals who sell to them, usually stolen guns. They don't care about and don't follow any regulations anyway. It is also illegal to buy a firearm for someone else. This is called a straw purchase and is a federal crime. Increased gun regulations do absolutely nothing to stop crime (see Canada's long gun registry). They are just a "feel good" reaction by politicians to placate their ignorant constituents and to pander to gun banners.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by brihacharan » Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:15 pm

Thanks xl_target for the clarification on Gun Control in the US....I stand educated!
As I understand if a US citizen can establish his / her credentials & pass the scrutiny by the authorities then he / she can buy, own & keep more than one fire arm....
Compared to this in India even after establishing one's credentials & scrutiny by concerned authorities, the chances of being refused a licence to buy & own a firearm weighs heavily against the applicant....
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by Anand » Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:40 pm

IMHO In reality there can be no truely random sample. Those that are interested in conducting these type of surveys usually have an agenda, therefore they will try to swing the survey to meet their requirements. Examples as already mentioned by other members; If you want a larger response in favor of RKBA all you have to do is get your "random" sample from Rural USA (or India) and if you want it the other way then get your "random" sample from Urban areas. :lol:

Again IMHO, unfortunately, the media in general is neither truely fair nor honest. It has its own (business?,political?) interests at stake. Usually, the media in the USA that I have observed, whether it be TV channels or Newspapers, Movie Studios etc. have always picked on stories that have gun violence, and discuss "how to solve this problem of easy access to guns/assault weapons and saving lives and "common sense gun laws". They never discuss any incidents where a law abiding citizen has used a gun in defense or how many laws already exist to prevent illegal access to guns. Nor do they ever focus on proper enforcement of existing laws (so then logic would dictate that, when apparently, existing laws don't work, then you need stricter new ones :roll: ). They will tell you "Facts" about how high the likelyhood of gun violence can be if a gun is in the house, or about how many children die yearly due to gun violence/negligence.

They never talk about knife or baseball bat violence, or deaths due to car accidents or swimming pool drownings or for that matter deaths due to doctors' negligence, all of which are higher than gun deaths.
Any time a debate or a serious discussion is being done on TV between RKBA and Anti gun representatives, the usual method is to put forward a lot of these untrue/biased "facts" and "survey results" where no scientific or fair method is used. The other ploy is the supposed "neutral" host will let the anti gun guy speak first and for longer, and then when the pro gun guy is trying to explain his views, there will be lots of interruptions, distracting inputs, sidetracking jokes (including sarcasm) and instigatory comments( trying to piss him off and so show him to be trigger happy, easily riled guy) and the most effective one of all, timing it such that a commercial break comes in only when the pro-gun guy is trying to intensely put his point forward.

I have been a member of the NRA from 2000 to 2008 and have watched several "debates" on RKBA, one that sticks in my mind was between Tom Selleck and Rosie O'Donell and (If I remember this right) an Interview of Wayne La Pierre, accusing the President that a certain level of violence by guns is acceptable to Clinton (by not properly enforcing existing gun laws) so that it appears as if more laws are needed to curb this "Gun Culture". That is exactly how politics work. Show the existing laws to be ineffective by inadequate enforcement and new more strict laws become necessary.

As for the "GunShow Loophole", the fact that the laws allow a private sale between individuals in most/or all states, without having to engage the Government as an intermediary makes it difficult to "regulate" or tax or gather info as to who the guns are with. IMHO, in Gunshows there exists the potential for an illegal person (criminal,illegal immigrant or a psycho etc.) to buy a gun without any of the restraints that exist in dealing with FFLs. Also, when a gun is bought from an FFL, the background check is done not only on the individual but also the gun itself (if it was ever used in a crime). Now I am in favor of Gunshows, however, I am not in favor of illegals getting guns or the Government illegally collecting data on Gun owners.
Either way, whether the sampling is fair or "random', about what the citizens think, the fact is, the Constitution of the United States written by the Founding Fathers in their infinite wisdom, chose to put in writing and elaborate (so that it may never be infringed) that the people have a Right to Bear Arms, not only to defend themselves against attackers, but also to prevent any potential misadventure by a Tyrannical Government against its own people.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by bennedose » Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:01 pm

xl_target wrote: Law abiding citizens are the only ones who follow these regulations. Criminals can just go to back alleys and purchase a firearm from other criminals who sell to them, usually stolen guns. They don't care about and don't follow any regulations anyway. It is also illegal to buy a firearm for someone else. This is called a straw purchase and is a federal crime. Increased gun regulations do absolutely nothing to stop crime (see Canada's long gun registry). They are just a "feel good" reaction by politicians to placate their ignorant constituents and to pander to gun banners.
Given that there are 200 million firearms in private hands, what happens when a firearm owner dies? What happens to his gun/s? If the weapon was bought before current validation procedures, would it be illegal for his heirs to possess them? Or sell them?

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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by timmy » Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:55 pm

XL has given a very nice summary of gun controls in the USA -- thanks XL. Please note his words on state and local laws. These are gradually being brought in line with Constitutional provisions, but a wide array of them still bedevils gun owners.

Regarding what happens to a gun when someone dies, this depends on the state. Some states would have the gun pass to the heirs like any other property. Other states may have ownership rules, and these rules may depend on whether the firearm in question is a handgun. Fully automatic weapons are covered under separate federal law -- one needs to abide by a very restrictive set of regulations for these.

Bennedose, you keep coming back to the "200 million firearms" phrase, as if there is something wrong with this. Frankly, I think that the number of automobiles in this nation (among other issues) is of far greater concern. First of all, it is not as if these weapons lie in a large pile in the middle of town, where anyone and everyone has access to them. It is also clear that those with multiple firearms (like myself) pose no increased threat to society. Rambo may depict people loaded to the gills with guns, which are blazing away in every direction, but most ordinary humans can only shoot one gun at a time. So, for instance, I may have 20-something guns, but this poses little more threat than my having just one. Secondly, this number of guns indicates a more widespread distribution of them in the hands of the populace, which offers, in and of itself, some degree of protection. Many gun owners vote, and it would be much harder to initiate collection schemes, as Canada and Australia did, regarding semi-automatic long guns and handguns. There are simply too many voters who would object to such a measure in the USA. The distribution of firearms is therefore, in and of itself, an obstacle to draconian gun control measures. I would add that part of this situation has been brought about, ironically, by the very people who try to impose more restrictive gun regulations. The gun community here runs to the stores like chickens with their heads cut off at any whiff of restrictions being imposed. I would say to gun control advocates that, if they want to slow the rate of gun sales in this country, they need to stop threatening RKBA and there will be a lot fewer buying sprees for guns.

As regards Anand's comments about polls and the Constitution, please understand that if the Constitution actually meant what a lot of blabbering people here in the USA imply, there would be no reason for the NRA or any other group that lobbies for gun rights. You should understand that the fundamental Constitutional principle was stated by Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes many years ago when he said that the Constitution says whatever a majority of the people say that it does. Those who have this idea that the Constitution enshrines certain rights in a sacrosanct way in the USA are very far off the mark and need to be classed with those who believe in the tooth fairy and other mythological ideas, like "fairness."

The fact is, all of those rights in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights are quite fluid. Many groups are fighting to protect Free Speech, Religion, Freedom from unreasonable search and seizure, besides RKBA. If these rights were truly inviolable, there'd be no need to have anyone fighting over them. Even the language to RKBA is not that clear cut, and while it provides a lot more of a basis for personal gun ownership than other countries have, it's by no means a sure thing that we will keep our gun rights without vigilance.

I know it is a wonderful thing to go on about the USA's Founding Fathers, George Washington chopping down the cherry tree, and Abe Lincoln spitting rails (and all that hooey). But remember, those same Founding Fathers, in their infinite wisdom, enshrined the right of one human being to own another and counted some human beings as 3/5s of a man (Article 1 Section 2 will give you a start on this matter). I certainly hope that we recognize the need for changing that! We should also remember that, when the Constitution was submitted for ratification, the States refused to do so without it being amended ten times, right from the get-go. So lets not go down that road of the Constitution being sacred scripture that is infallible and must never be changed, nor be shacked to the silly notion that in every aspect, the intentions of people who pooped in pots, rode horses an wore wigs, and had never seen light bulbs or nuclear bombs must trump any ideas of common sense. There's a lot of difference between governing an urban society than 4 million people living on the edge of a continental wilderness.

The US Constitution is, in fact, noteworthy for its brevity, which lends itself toward being exactly what Oliver Wendell Holmes said: whatever people think it says.

What is important is to recognize that there are certain fundamental liberties that all people should have -- those for which we see people struggling to obtain and protect all over the world. As far as I am concerned, and now, arguably over 50% of my fellow citizens along with me, RKBA is one of those basic rights to which we, like all others, are entitled.

Regarding polls, the reason for these polls to exist is for money, like anything else. Political campaigns will hire a pollster to find out how their candidate is doing in an election run. It ought to be plain that, if the poll doesn't reflect how people feel about the candidate, paying for the poll is as much of a waste of money as cheating at solitaire is a waste of time! Businesses hire pollsters to see how their products might be received. Newspapers may want to present how people really think about one thing or another, serious or silly. There are polls published by certain groups that unquestionably lean one way or another. This reflects the difference in people: Some folks get a bunch of data together to support their viewpoint, while others get a bunch of data together to FORM a viewpoint -- in other words, to learn something. The first type can learn nothing from a mountain of data, and they will always find the second type to be a threat to them and their entrenched notions.

Some polling establishments have achieved a reputation for fairness and lack of bias, while others have not.

Certainly, the media will try to present whatever data they come across as supporting their assumptions. But throwing out all news is hardly the answer: Should we believe that men never walked on the moon, or that a terrible tidal wave never swept the Indian Ocean in 2005 because it was on the news? Of course, that's ridiculous. If we can't be everywhere all the time, we have to take someone's word for something, just like we did when our mothers told us not to touch the stove because it was hot and would burn us. We have to try to sort out fact from fiction, and recognize that, like everything else human, that process is subject to imperfection. The alternative is living in a cave.

As far as gun shows in the USA are concerned, it appears that you've never bought a gun at one, otherwise you'd know that they check your ID, make you fill out the form, and check you out with the FBI, just like at the gun shop -- all as XL has already laid out.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by xl_target » Mon Dec 15, 2014 3:44 am

bennedose wrote:
xl_target wrote: Law abiding citizens are the only ones who follow these regulations. Criminals can just go to back alleys and purchase a firearm from other criminals who sell to them, usually stolen guns. They don't care about and don't follow any regulations anyway. It is also illegal to buy a firearm for someone else. This is called a straw purchase and is a federal crime. Increased gun regulations do absolutely nothing to stop crime (see Canada's long gun registry). They are just a "feel good" reaction by politicians to placate their ignorant constituents and to pander to gun banners.
Given that there are 200 million firearms in private hands, what happens when a firearm owner dies? What happens to his gun/s? If the weapon was bought before current validation procedures, would it be illegal for his heirs to possess them? Or sell them?
Let me put it this way. When a person dies what happens to the cars he owns or his lawnmower or his screwdriver set? To many gun owners, especially those who have had them for a lifetime, guns are treated as tools. More people die in the US in car accidents than from gunshots. No one calls for car bans. Yet we equate guns with crime, even though a gun by itself cannot do anything till a human being pulls the trigger.

It would not be illegal for his heirs to possess them, as long as they are non-prohibited persons. If his heirs feel strongly enough about dad's guns or grandpa's guns, they can retain them
Or in many cases there are arguments among relatives and his possessions are put up for auction. Many auctioneers have Federal Firearms licences and they can legally auction them off to non-prohibited persons. The guns are auctioned side by side with his tools and household possessions, except that the buyer is not subject to a background check for purchasing the tools, just the guns.
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Re: More than half of USA now favors RKBA over controls

Post by CZHarry » Wed Dec 17, 2014 1:45 pm

xl_target and timmy,very good overview of gun ownership. It would take up way too much time and research to give all the separate state gun laws. Like you said, a few require a "Firearm Owner ID" card, others, nothing. In California there is a 10 day wait before you can pick it up from the store, in Florida, there is 3-5 day wait ("cooling off period"). In California, you can only buy "approved" guns. In Florida, you can buy whatever you want, as many as you want, like if I want a revolver, a Glock, a hunting rifle and a shotgun, I can buy them all at the same time.

Upon the owner's death, a couple of states require the guns be legally transferred to the family member(s) taking possession. In Florida (as in the majority of states), the firearms are just common property. The next of kin gets the property. When I pass, I will put in my will which guns go to my son, and my wife gets the rest if she wants them. I'll have an updated list of their value and where the values can be looked up if she wants to sell them (36 right now). I doubt she will want any except for her own. Same goes for the many thousands of rounds of ammo I have.

My most valued pistol is my old Colt M1911. All the rest are just tools. There's an old joke that goes, "When I die, I pray my wife won't sell my guns for what I told her I paid for them."

Again, xl_target pointed that "face to face" sales are (mostly) not regulated. If I sell a gun to a private person, I ask; "Are you prohibited from buying a gun? (No). Are you a resident of Florida?" (Yes). Money is paid, guy goes away with his new purchase.

I am always hesitant to mention the ease at which we, in the US, can buy & sell guns and buy ammo by the case, because I know how difficult it is to get them (and ammo) in India. I just hate for it to sound like bragging.

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