Piercing the Smokescreen-Good news for Gun Owners

[goodboy_mentor]

Can't the same be questioned in courts considering same production costs here as well as abroad?? Well, pardon me,if it's a stupid question.

Can be questioned, but IOF will come up with some "reasons" for high costs which are outside its scope to control. That will be the end. So questioning will not achieve much.

On the other hand there are many things that can be questioned from government, related to firearms licensing issues/procedures, import restrictions, only after we have sufficient data gathered through RTI.

For example: In the various stages of the procedure for issue of Arms License, what specific pieces of information are collected, are those pieces of information already available under RTI? If yes, why can't the applicant provide the same at the time of application, since it is evident that the Licensing Authorities and Police are already overburdened with the number of applications received and very little number of licenses issued.(by obtaining information using RTI about no. of applications received/no of licenses issued/no. of applications rejected with reasons)

[m24]

Can be questioned, but IOF will come up with some "reasons" for high costs which are outside its scope to control. That will be the end. So questioning will not achieve much.

My question was w.r.t private players who as per hvj1's theory will sell a piece for $500 abroad and 2.0L in India.

For example: In the various stages of the procedure for issue of Arms License, what specific pieces of information are collected, are those pieces of information already available under RTI? If yes, why can't the applicant provide the same at the time of application, since it is evident that the Licensing Authorities and Police are already overburdened with the number of applications received and very little number of licenses issued.(by obtaining information using RTI about no. of applications received/no of licenses issued/no. of applications rejected with reasons)

Am already working on that. Plan to do that in a week or two.

Regards

[goodboy_mentor]

My question was w.r.t private players who as per hvj1's theory will sell a piece for $500 abroad and 2.0L in India.

Thanks for clarifying, it has given me another idea. As far as I can think of, it will not be possible to question the private players, but if there are no guidelines for price/quality etc. for firearms by the government, government can be requested to give the guidelines(since firearms are one of the most effective/essential tools for self protection), self protection is a necessity as well a legal right(Section 96 to Section 106 of the Indian Penal Code provides the right of self defence to the Citizen, ref: http://indiansforguns.com/viewtopic.php ... 1&start=18), not a luxury and government cannot allow the price of a tool necessary to effectively exercise a necessity/legal right to become unaffordable for common citizens. This is applicable even today for IOF products. Unfortunately, it appears nobody has put up this question to government till now.
For example, we cannot question the mobile service providers about price, validity etc.(since they are free to decide the price, validity etc. of their product they sell and are also competing with their rivals), but we have TRAI in place which gives broad guidelines to be followed about price etc. by all mobile service providers.

[hvj1]

goodboymentor and m24.
Take for example the automobile industry, the skoda models sold in India are 3-4 lacs overpriced than in Europe, its the same case with volkwagon! However, the pricing of a product can only be controlled in a Communist regime and not a free market democratic country such as ours.
As you are well aware,a product is priced according to the perceived tastes,buying perceptions, purchasing power of the market in which they are sold, one of the major factors is the 'brand image' the product invokes in the mind of the buyer. All these mixed together is reflected in the price, the market response is reflected in sales.
In the case of IOF, there is no competition, however, in the case of the IOF another very important factor, which is ignored are the 'fixed costs' and the 'direct costs' associated with each unit / gun produced. To produce the same quality crap (which in the first place no self respecting international manufacturer will attempt) an international manufacturer will produce three guns with lower costs, both fixed and direct and in quicker time!
In IOF greater number of unnecessary workers will produce the gun, which abroad may be produced by 1/3 the same number. The inference is not that Indians are lousy, but too many numbers are unnecessarily utilized, using third rate inefficiant technology and production methods. Which results in higher cost of production.
BR

[nagarifle]

Communist regime and not a free market democratic country such as ours. BR

sorry to enlighten you. you are only free as the degree of freedom given to you. And a democratic country is a country which gives freedom with a string attached, and you do not hold the string

[mundaire]

Err, I think I have been misunderstood. There are NOT 40 million license holders in the country. The real figure is about 1/10th of that number... but the number of license aspirants is at least 20-100 times the number of current license holders. Also, a lot of people don't bother to apply (for a license) as the prices of firearms are simply not attractive enough for them to go through the bother! I quoted the figure of 40 million merely to indicate that if the current number of license holders was to be multiplied by 10, then the current market simply cannot satisfy the demand.... which will lead more & more people to question the current market conditions.

IIRC the manufacturing cost of a 9mm Browning copy made by IOF was stated as something like INR 9,000/- or thereabouts (this was as per some CAG report someone had posted here a while back)... and this is a thoroughly corrupt and inefficient organisation! A private player would be able to make the same at a much lower price. Your regular .32 cal pocket pistols should not cost more than 5-6,000 to make in India, lets for a moment assume that it even costs them 10,000/ due to far superior quality etc. Add the cost of royalty (if there is a foreign collaborator), a profit margin for the manufacturer, dealer/ distributor/ retailer etc. I still don't see it selling for more than INR 25,000/- plus tax.

As to the contention that the MHA is hand in glove with a few selected potential manufacturers I firmly DO NOT believe that to be the case. There are far easier ways to make a lot more money, than to attempt to convince TWO different ministries to do one's bidding and that too for a relatively small gain. Someone who has that sort of power, can easily make much more money elsewhere without anyone even getting a whiff of anything!

Others are free to disagree with me... but I for one am not convinced.

Cheers!
Abhijeet

[goodboy_mentor]

if there are no guidelines for price of firearms by the government, government can be requested to give the guidelines(since firearms are one of the most effective/essential tools for self protection), self protection is a legal right(Section 96 to Section 106 of the Indian Penal Code provides the right of self defence to the Citizen, ref: http://indiansforguns.com/viewtopic.php ... 1&start=18)and government cannot deny effective exercise of a legal right by making firearms unaffordable for common citizens. This is applicable even today for IOF products.

BTW, just curious does the above logic carry any sense, in other words is the above logic a legally feasible possibility?

[shooter]

hvj bhai,

ive litsened to arguments and counter arguments, logic and legalities but one STRONG point you have is what we call "duniya dekhi hai".

this trumps all of the above mentioned qualities. aapne duniya dekhi hai. my gut feeling is to agree with you.

jawani ka josh tends to be more optimistic, hopeful and moralistic.

[hvj1]

There are far easier ways to make a lot more money, than to attempt to convince TWO different ministries to do one's bidding and that too for a relatively small gain. Someone who has that sort of power, can easily make much more money elsewhere without anyone even getting a whiff of anything!

Dear Shooter and Abhijeet,
Shooterbhai, thanks for your support and Abhijeet, I respect your views, but I love the argument. Here are a few more points which we could mull on.
1. Every seasoned businessman (as you are well aware) only gets into a business after he is certain, that he will not only recover his investment in a decent span of time, but also make a decent profit.
2. Therefore let us look at what 'breakeven analysis' has to throw up.
3. Breakeven in units = Fixed cost/(Selling price-direct costs), where Selling price-direct costs = contribution.
(where each unit = 1 pistol/revolver)
4. Breakeven in units = Fixed cost/Contribution.
5. In a simple breakeven analysis, I assume the following;
(a) Fixed cost = The total investment Rs 50.00 crores
(b) Selling price = Rs 1.5 lacs
(c) Direct costs = Rs 0.5 lacs (advertising, dealers commission,taxes, etc included)
6. Breakeven in units = Rs 50,00,00,000/Rs,100,000
= 5000 units!!! These 5000 units can be produced in ONE SINGLE SHIPMENT of CKD or SKD units, these 5000 units can be in the market
WITHIN ONE MONTH!Now you tell me, ANY INDUSTRY, or business, which can achieve breakeven or recover their ENTIRE investment iN just 5000 units in such a SHORT time span???
50 CRORES BACK IN ONE MONTH ??? This incredibly LOW Breakeven, is the SOURCE and MOTIVATION, which IS and WILL drive the Business houses , to GO HARD IN OVERDRIVE to get their licenses. MONEY will flow left right and centre to GET THIS PROJECT OF THE GROUND. That is why, the direct costs, which as you rightly put it should be in the region of max.10,000. is bloated 5 times to accomodate the GREASING ANGLE.
Pleasegive it a thought, my entire analysis hinges on this BREAKEVEN calculations.
Hence the second hand market will crash, nay the bottom will drop off from under their feet! As regards growth rate of 5%, it can go to 15% HOW?? (GREASE, GREASE, GREASE, the cogs, that move the machinery/system) khao, khilao, subko khush karo Mantra of Indian Business.
Best Regards

[zinx]

Dear hvj1,

Your argument makes sense I think . But will the buyers accept A (Indian Brand) of the international quality in the same league as Berettas,Walthers,smith & Wessons , Glock ,CZ ....... .

Regards ,

[Anand]

"Your argument makes sense I think . But will the buyers accept A (Indian Brand) of the international quality in the same league as Berettas,Walthers,smith & Wessons , Glock ,CZ ....... "

Very true, but not all licensees are looking for "brand name" firearms, most in fact are looking for good quality and reliability. For example, most of those who have Indian made shotguns may want to replace them with better copies of say Baikal or BRNO. Note that I am saying copies(collaborated designs). Likewise, instead of crappy IOF pistols, imagine licensed copies of CZ 83 or a Beretta 82/84 in .32 ACP/.380ACP, or for that matter even designs of revolvers that are no longer in production such as the copies of older S&W N frames in .44 Mag or Rifles like the Mauser 98 etc.
The only reason I say copies is that the overheads will be very high to develop, test and produce a totally new indegenous design.
Anand

[zinx]

So if these happens say licensed copies of Walther PPK/S , CZs , .... Do you think this happening in the near future ? Say in another couple of years . So the profitable business of gun dealers is over ?

[hvj1]

Anand,
I agree with your take on the matter.
Zinx,
The profitable business of gun dealers, which had taken a hit since1984, will take off,and why not. Now regarding the timeframe. Put yourself in the shoes of the 'moneybags', how soon would you like to make your moollah. Mind you, the desire to profit in these guys is developed to higher intensity then folks like you and me. It runs in their blood. Also they know how the system works and the wheeling dealing required to get the various govt. machineries moving quick time. Still, max. 18 months, min 9 months.
They have splendid arguments on their side, 26/11, army , police, paramilitary desperate to get good quality weapons, revenues lost through imports, revenues to be generated through taxes, jobs to be created. When presented with this side of the argument, even the most doughty MHA mandarin, guardian of the status quo, would be made to feel like a desh drohi
Regards

[nagarifle]

having read the posts above and knowing that we live in an age and a society which has one mandate.

profit by any means.

we also know that big companies give donation to not one political party but two or three as a standard practice. in a way they have a finger in every nikker.

we also know that money talks and rights and wrong walks. now keeping these well known facts in mind. i for one can easily believe that companies and government official can work together to benefit each other. Also oil can be applied to any sticky situation.

Thus i do see it possible and would agree with hvj1. Also i would agree that once an item do come to the market the cost is high, however after a time ie 2 years the cost goes down, we all know that, from our wives shopping expenses what you paid last year for a TV, the same model is a little less, today as more people buy the product the cheaper it becomes. Also more companies produce the same product the cheaper it gets as one has a select what one wants.

i think that the statement hvj1 can only become reality if:

if there a an agreement already made by the big money bags and the concerned government departments.?

if it comes into being, I do not see how the market can be any worse off.
as for the cost? can they be any worse? i do not think so.
As for imports? thats is a different matter.

its profit by any means.

[hvj1]

Hey Naga,
Thanks for chiming in.I was looking forward to comments from you , ABhijeet, m24, GBM and many more aficionados to help me get my 'take' correct.
Regards