Piercing the Smokescreen-Good news for Gun Owners

[hvj1]

Here is my analysis based on some facts:
1. DIPP on its own admission, obtained permission from the cabinet and granted Licenses for the Manufacture of firearms to THREE FIRMS.
2. MHA objected heavily, since no clearances were obtained from them.
3. Wiser councils prevailed or shall we say DEEPER POCKETS prevailed and the subsequent backroom negotiations concluded with a general agreement to SHARE THE PIE amongst other SALIVATING HAND RUBBERS.
4. MHA comes up with a token notification, to inform the GENERAL DUFFER public , calling for UNCALLED FOR COMMENTS, which are to be sold to the nearest raddiwallah.
5. Having followed the PROPAH procedure, a list of Previously SHORTLISTED Money bags will be declared.
6. While we are kicking up a fuss, top firms have already been scouted and with a wink and a nod agreement for tie-ups Letters of intent are already ready kept in the back pockets.
7. BIg firms make their entry, who wish to CUT LABOUR COSTS, send us knocked down parts (barrels chiefly), Oh yes, some parts can be manufactured by the natives . These are subsequently REEXPORTED (read the MHA draft carefully).
8. Some of these guns read crumbs will be thrown to the general public (NPB)
9. The HUGE , HUGE domestic markets will see the replacement of IOF trash
10. A few years down the line IOF will be sold of or taken over by a group operating on behalf of one the MINISHTER with SHINISTER plan well thought out (Like NOW).
11. Ban on Imports WILL NOT BE LIFTED to protect the big players
12. Much against MHA wishes, Licensing procedure will probably be eased under pressure from the BIG PLAYERS to widen the market.
13.CAFI will be SCREEEEEEWED.
14. The Armed Forces will be happy. Better guns.
15. The DEEP POCKETS even happier.Pocket bulge.
16. The Government is nobly happy for creating JOBS.
17. We the duffer public, should also be thankfully happy, with better guns flooding the market , though EXORBITANT prices will still prevail due to the mutual understanding between the DEEP POCKET players to maintain prices, fleece the public and line their pockets.
Correct me if I am wrong. Errors and Omissions accepted.

[sa_ali]

all that i can say after reading it. It was like day dreaming of holding brand new Pistol after paying only 50K not 5Lac

AMEEENNNN

[vkjalan]

Some Good News. I must say Finally , But whats the basis on which such conclusions have been made. Is anything made public. Well if such things are happening atleast we should be happy that the licensing rules are being relaxed.

Happy Shooting
Vk.Jalan.

[zinx]

Will be much better if they allow us to buy weapons from abroad with 100 to 200 % duty .

[saahil]

if they allow us to import,say cz83, im ready to pay them 500% and then also it will be cheaper than present price of llama pistol.

[mundaire]

LOL, I wish, I really wish... it is not as simple as stated is all I'll say

Cheers!
Abhijeet

[hamiclar01]

we already have a local pistol grip 12b nicknamed the maruti gun

are you suggesting the advent of the nano dunaali

[goodboy_mentor]

Will be much better if they allow us to buy weapons from abroad with 100 to 200 % duty .

They(government) will not allow import of weapons on its own, unless it sees some real benefit(which seems next to a miracle) or we fight for it.
No offense to anyone, if gays, prostitutes, prisoners (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 445590.cms) can get organized to fight for their demands/rights, why we cannot fight for our gun rights? It is our legal right.

[mundaire]

Logically speaking the best bet for ever opening up imports is - if we have 40 million (or more) license holders with nothing available to buy!

[hvj1]

This a reply I sent to a friend, thought all should read it.

What you have read is an analysis based on a few confirmed facts, since three very big firms have already been awarded manufacturing licenses in 2007, with the approval of the cabinet, what we see today, the ammendments to the draft policy, is nothing but a procedure by the same govt. to regularise the three licenses issued. To avoid controversies, i.e. not to be accused by the opposition for favouritism shown to these three firms, an attempt is being made, to show proper procedures are being followed. Hence it follows, that besides these three firms, more firms will also be issued manufacturing licenses.
The 26/11 attack, has also provided the stimulus to arm our police, para military and military forces with the best of weapons. Naturally, instead of importing, it makes a lot of sense to co produce these same weapons in India, provide jobs, generate revenues through re-exports. (please read the MHA draft, which clearly spell out these details).
Now most and generally all firms who will obtain these licenses will go for a tie up ( this is also mentioned in the MHA draft 26% FDI). Since setting up a firearms unit from scratch and coming up with quality firearms takes many years, most weapons will come in SKD or CKD units, reassembled, (a few parts will be manufactured here), the weapons will be tested and then sold in the DOMESTIC market through arms dealers (again mentioned in the MHA draft).
So what more signals does one require.
As a result the 2nd hand firearms market is going to CRASH. If somebody is offering a weapon at 8-12 lakkhs, do you think there will be any takers,these firearms will then be sold at near throw away prices. Now predicting the time frame for the firms to be shortlisted and commence production should not be more that 18 months maximum. I strongly beiieve, that within the year you will see manufacturing units being set up. The moment the list is announced the market will crash.
The decision to buy or not to buy is yours.
Best Regards



Please note point No.11 Ban on Imports WILL NOT BE LIFTED........



3. DEEPER POCKETS prevailed and the subsequent backroom negotiations concluded with a general agreement to SHARE THE PIE amongst other SALIVATING HAND RUBBERS.
9. The HUGE , HUGE domestic markets
Yes Abhijeet 40 million license holders is just that. Rightly put.



As Abhijeet says, there are 40 million license holders, thats 4 crore. Now here is my maths;
1. Lets say 1 crore of the above wish to buy NEW firearms from a reputed arms manufacturer.
2. The new firearms (maybe, Berretta, Browning, Smith & Weson, Taurus, Ruger,heck anybody for that matter, anything is better than IOF stc.) are priced at Rs 2 lakhs/unit.
3. Would YOU buy or not. I know, I will queue up for SURE.
4. Cost Price 100,000 (inclusive of excise,sales tax etc), Selling Price 200,000 Net Profit 100,000/-
5. Let us assume that there are 10 Indian Manufacturers, then roughly market share of each is 10,000 units.
6. Net profit = 100,000 x 10,000 units = Rs 100 crores.
7. As per MHA draft, investment should be Rs 50 crore. Each manufacturer recovers his initial invest ment and makes another Rs 50 Crores and this is only the domestic arms license holders, what about the paramilitary, military and police?
8. That is why BAN on Imports will not be lifted, so that these guys can capitalise on the domestic market.
Any way its a WIN WIN situation for ALL.

[tingriman]

yes hvj1, your views are quite logical,
Theoretically people may not agree, but plainly speaking, practically it happens.

regards,
tingriman

[sa_ali]

I was just thinking that may be MHA is trying to provide damper to ur maths hvj1 , as with new policy they might be able to reduce the buyer base.
The thought just crosses my mind that may be its in house arm twisting happening, where in MHA might later able to squeeze more out of these big mfg to make it liberal.
It is like what we used to see in the Yes Minister Serial, its it the IAS lobby which drives all this, the ministers are just Yes party . So who knows.

[m24]

EXORBITANT prices will still prevail due to the mutual understanding between the DEEP POCKET players to maintain prices, fleece the public and line their pockets.

Well, call me an optimist, but don't agree on this portion. Till now, we only had IOF products plus the pre-independence stock for sale. It was a seller's market here because of the trickle that was flowing in. If these private players are smart enough (they're arms manufacturers, they are smart enough ), they may start by opening the market on a higher price but a year or two later, they will bring the price down. As the saying goes, to move a mountain, you start by moving the pebbles. Well, with the approval of this draft, the 1st pebble will be moved.

Regards

[hvj1]

Dear m24
By exorbitant I mean, around Rs 2.0 lakhs for a revolver/pistol, whose selling price abroad is Rs 50. thousand (generally). Compared to the IOF crap, persons like you, me and the scores of aficionados on this site, would happily go for it in CONTEXT to the ridiculous prices being quoted. I mean a .357 mag. is being quoted at 12 -14 lacs!! A .32 quoted at Rs 6 lacs??
I read a few days back, someone answered in reply, that the cost of the pistol would be equivalent to a small flat in a decent locality (was it you?)
Regarding this particular point (costing patterns in India) I looked at the telecom (mobile) market, where the tariffs cost a bomb initially, then as the market widened, the tariffs kept dropping to the present docomo rates. In our case, the market is not going to widen like the telecom market (30% and upward growth rates) More like 5 %, in our case and that would really be great! Thats 2 lac licenses annually. Hence, a profit margin of at least Rs 1.0 lac is crucial for the initial introduction in the market, for the big players to recover their kitty. Since the growth rate is not so great, prices may remain steady at around Rs 2.0 lacs.
But yes, I look forward to more discussion with you and other aficionados on the above subject.
(Incidentally, I am a finance man with market research as one of my specialisation, hence I request you all to excuse my tendency to 'back of the envelope' calculations at the drop of a hat).
Best Regards

[m24]

By exorbitant I mean, around Rs 2.0 lakhs for a revolver/pistol, whose selling price abroad is Rs 50. thousand (generally).

Can't the same be questioned in courts considering same production costs here as well as abroad?? Well, pardon me,if it's a stupid question.

Regards